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Prediction for CME (2025-09-30T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-09-30T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41522/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1. Source is a large filament eruption seen near the SW limb of the Earth-facing disk, and in the SW quadrant of the STEREO-A-facing disk. The filament can be seen spanning S35W60 to S15W108 and beginning to show movement at 2025-09-30T08:36Z. An associated M2.6 flare peaking at 2025-90-30T09:40Z and a narrow jet of ejecta, both from AR 14227 (S17W58), can be seen in GOES SUVI 304. Liftoff of material and post-eruptive brightening can also be seen in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-03T00:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Expected arrival time: 2025-10-03T00:00:00Z
    Arrival time uncertainty: 15
    Estimated peak K: 5
    Peak K uncertainty: 1
    Probability of arrival: 20
    CME start time: 2025-09-30T09:30:00Z

:Issued: 2025 Oct 01 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51001
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Oct 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST

...

Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC
CME 565) that lifted off at 09:45 UTC on September 30, suggests a small
chance for a glancing blow arrival starting from the UTC evening on October
02, but with low confidence.
Lead Time: 53.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-09-30T18:36Z
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